Recent reports indicate that Thompson is beefing up his virtual team of advisers. In fact, it seems that most of what Thompson is doing is virtual. The question in my mind is this: will Fred "Max Headroom" Thompson come out of his Internet box?
Early leaks to the blogosphere indicated that the Thompson campaign would be radically "different" relying on Internet efforts rather than "trudging through Iowa and New Hampshire". Yesterday, the Hotline reported a gambit of internet savvy Thompson-ites including Mike Turk, Jon Henke, and William Beutler. This is a very capable team.
However, this is one of the critical questions in political campaign history. Will a predominately virtual campaign make the same impact as pressing the flesh?
I remain convinced that it will not and cannot.
Take for instance two facts on the table here.
First, the reach of the blogosphere. Now obviously the Thompson campaign isn't limiting its efforts to the blogosphere but it's a good comparative sample data point to begin with.
If you look at the top 5 conservative blogs on the Internet (according the TTLB) and look at their average rate of "daily visits" you get the following:
Malkin - 105,000
Instapundit - 125,000
LGF - 195,000
Powerline - 58,000
Captain's Quarters - 29,000
Experience has shown that "Absolute Unique Visitors" (that is true warm bodies) is about a third of "daily visits". In other words, real advocates of specific blogs visit the blog about 3 times a day or more. Many times from different computers.
If we assume that 60% of these visitors are shared visitors (i.e. I visit Michelle and Powerline everyday myself) and factor in the 1/3rd calculation we get about 100,000 unique visitors.
Don't get me wrong... I think the blogosphere is the bomb! But it ain't the election bomb - yet.
One more stat. According to a recent survey from the Chronicle of Philantropy, the 20 largest charities are raising only 1% of their funds from online donations.
Now, these are not directly correlated to the Thompson campaign but neither are they anecdotal.
In short, I think Fred is one cycle too early. Relying heavily on an Internet-driven campaign won't win you the election my mind, but it will be a great learning process.
Comments
You may want to look at the interfaces
Not the GUIs, but where the systems go up against each other: internet, traditional media, retail campaigning, and volunteers.
That is where the Thompson campaign can rapidly move and exploit.
For example, the thousands of FredHeads that spontaneously organized with each other on the internet. They started with a few on the message boards, blogs and email lists, then decided as a gorup to formalize and start recruiting people. Now they are organized at the state level across the country, and at the county level in key states, and are starting to organize even at the precinct where they have the personnel density. And there is some cross-state regional help for areas adjacent to each other as well - something traditional state and county party organizations do not do.
That organization sits outside of the whole Thompson campaign apparatus - it was not started by him nor is it reportable to him. It is using email, web sites, IM and message boards (and blackberry) to maintain cohesion - and for quick muster and reaction capability.
Now factor in that organization and when the campaign legally goes live, quickly adding 30K or more volunteers to the already existent infrastructure that is already set up with leaders and so on - and then tied to the campaign via the net.
That sort of ad hoc to organized flow is possible only with the internet.
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Man is a political animal in a greater measure than any bee or any gregarious animal. For nature does nothing without purpose, and man alone of the animals possesses speech. (Aristotle)
Missed Points
I agree that flesh is more effective, however your warrants... well they're unwarranted.
a) There is no real data to the number of visitors who will visit a Campaign Blog versus a Commentator like Instapundit. I'm convinced that it'll be greater than 100,000 a day. You cannot give readers the stats of commentators, because they're not running for President; they're url isn't going to be on the bottom of every major newscast on TV when they appear.
b) You assume too much about Thompson's campaign. I think his hype is too early too - however that's on the base not the campaign. He plans to run the best ecampaign, however I think we all know that Fred is going to be in the field. Didn't he campaign that way in Tennessee?
c) No precedence. There is no precedence. Inherently good online analyst are at least keeping their mouths relatively shut. This election will change the way we do things - so don't put common restrictions on it, because it's already blown all expectations out of the water and only has over a year to go!
Nice observation, however your premise and expectations are flawed my friend.
Respectively yours,
Ali A. Akbar
Blogger
econservative.org, Founder
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